The State Bank of India (SBI) Chief Economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh, has slashed India’s full-year GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth forecast to 6.8% for FY23 from the earlier 7.5%.

Highlights

  • The reason behind this downward revision is statistical adjustments. On the other hand, it expects growth momentum to increase in the second half of FY23.
  • For QIFY23, the economist had forecasted GDP growth at 15.7%. In the remaining quarters, GDP growth will be at 6.9% in Q2FY23, further dropping to 4.1% in Q3 followed by a 4% rate in Q4.
Key Points:
  • India’s real GDP growth is at 13.5% which is contracted by 9.6% sequentially, but the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth series shows a pick-up with higher growth at 5.6% sequentially in Q1 compared to -4.1% in QLFY22 and 1.9% in Q4 FY22.
  • India’s nominal GDP growth came at 26.7% from 32.4% in QUFY22 and 14.9% in Q4 FY22.
  • During Q1 FY23, the manufacturing sector recorded a growth of 4.8% which is down from 49% in QUFY23.
  • The growth rate in construction stood at 16.8% in Q1FY23, a drop from 71.3% in QUFY22.
  • Also, mining and quarrying growth declined to 6.5% from 18% in Qt of FY22.
  • Recently, the National Statistical Office (NSO) also released the data for QIFY23, where the economy grew at 13.5%, a decline from 20.1% in QUFY22.

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